How to defeat Reform
Professor Jane Green’s new analysis shows Britain’s politics now split into hardened blocks. Labour’s mission must be to hold the centre and consolidate the left, fix the system and offer hope.
So, The Times today has a story about the excellent briefing we organised with Labour MPs and the great Professor Jane Green a couple of weeks ago. So ahead of the Spending Review I thought I might as well share some of the key messages - not least because it has such big implications for crucial decisions before the summer, especially welfare reform.
Prof Green was my mentor at Nuffield College during my stint as a Gwilym Gibbon Research Fellow a few years ago and I’m a huge fan of her work which now includes not only her latest analysis of British voter behaviour grounded in data from the British Election Study, but her hugely important research for the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) Panel Study on economic insecurity, and of course her analysis for ITV. If you’d like more detail I’d highly recommend Jane’s work for JRF work here, together with her argument on the Brexit shock and realignment to British politics here, and and excellent overview for the Political Quarterly here.
So what’s the big picture?
Well, key to understanding British politics today is to recognise that all parties are now competing in a highly fragmented politics where the threshold for winning is much lower. The House of Commons library made the point well this week in its new analysis of the local elections: the results showed the lowest ever average winner’s share of the vote at 40.7%, including 75 candidates who were elected with less than 30% of the vote.
This fragmentation has huge implications for Labour’s electoral strategy - because, as we will see below, Labour is itself not haemorrhaging votes to Reform. But Reform is consolidating votes on the right and is overtaking the Tories as the principal threat to Labour, a point well made by the Prime Minister this week.
My own rough look at this after the elections suggested there are 144 seats where the combined Tory and Reform vote exceeds the current Labour majority. To hold off the threat of Reform, Labour has to both hold the centre-ground of British politics and consolidate Britain’s progressive coalition. Why? Because in 101 of these 144 seats (i.e. 70% of them), the combined Labour, Lib Dem, Green, and ‘other candidates’ (generally Independents) vote is larger than the combined Tory-Reform vote.
The progressive coalition, if we can hold it together, is bigger than the combined forces of the Right in more than a hundred seats.
It is therefore vital that ‘Labour is Labour’ and does not alienate Britain’s coalition of decency to such an extent that progressives find it impossible to vote Labour at the next election. And to anyone who says, ‘these voters have nowhere else to go’, please check yourself and talk to someone who either lost or came close to losing to either a Green or an Independent.
So, what did Jane have to say to us?
Here were my takeaways of Jane’s two key insights, five challenges - and four strategic implications for Labour.
Key Insight #1: Reform UK = Largely Disillusioned Former Conservatives, Not Lots of Labour Defectors
“The most fundamental thing to understand is that Reform voters are overwhelmingly disillusioned Tories.”
Most Reform UK voters are older, economically insecure, and right-leaning on social issues.
Their dissatisfaction is driven more by performance failure (immigration, NHS, economic management) than by ideology.
Reform voters share many anti-establishment sentiments once attributed to Corbyn supporters: a belief that “the system isn’t working,” a distrust in elites, and a feeling of economic unfairness.
Crucially, only ~10% of Labour voters currently defect to Reform – but Reform blocks Labour from gaining disillusioned Tories.
As it happens, this is bang in line with findings from a range of brilliant work from a number of think tanks this spring. Persuasion UK for example have a similar take. They found just 11% of 2024 Labour voters are currently open to voting Reform - a figure dwarfed by Labour voters considering defections to the Greens (29%) or Lib Dems (41%).
Key Insight #2: Voters Sorted into Two Long-Term ‘Blocks’
“The Brexit realignment has not disappeared—it has hardened into two blocks.”
Left-liberal Remain block: Labour, Lib Dems, Greens, SNP.
Right-conservative Leave block: Tories, Reform.
Reform has capitalised on the fracturing of the right, while Labour has not yet fully coalesced the left.
Age remains a key predictor: older voters lean right, younger voters lean left, though Labour’s age advantage is weakening. Education too is a key divide. The SMF for example has a fascinating study of 73 constituency-level variables which indicates low education level is the strongest predictor of a Reform vote. As the SMF puts it, “The more people with degrees in the area, the smaller the Reform vote.”
The key point however is the traffic between these two blocs is extremely limited. Of course elections in Britain are won in the centre-ground because most voters self-position themselves as largely centrist - but at a constituency level, in this new era of fragmented politics when the threshold for victory is much lower, a party’s success at consolidating voters within their respective block will be key to victory.
These two insights now lead to five challenges which Prof Green argues, Labour must navigate.
Challenge 1: Governing on a Low Vote Share is Risky
“Costs of governing are real—and Labour is governing on just 35% of the vote.”
As is well understood, Labour ran a brilliant election campaign in 2024 but as the Tories’ collapsed what was delivered was a government that rests on a historically low proportion of the vote. Historically, incumbent parties lose support over time, and so this is a vulnerability. We therefore remain, as the saying goes, in the precarious position of trying to cross the slippery floor carrying a Ming vase; any perceived failure may have disproportionate consequences. Competence, clarity, and credibility are therefore crucial.
Challenge 2: It’s Not Votes Lost to Reform — It’s Votes Labour Failed to Gain
“Labour doesn’t have a Reform problem because it’s losing votes—it has a Reform problem because it’s not gaining them.”
Now it might not always feel like this on the ground. If Labour is losing 9-10% of its vote to Reform, that implies almost 1 million lost votes; these will be disproportionately concentrated in certain seats and so the swing to Reform will feel more acute in some place. But, overall, Reform is taking the lion’s share of the Tory collapse; it is not hoovering up Labour defectors.
But, but, but: Labour is not yet attracting economically insecure voters who traditionally might have shifted left.
These are voters who have had a bloody awful time during the long years of austerity and remain deeply pessimistic about the future. They are convinced the system is broken and simply not working for them. As it happens this is an issue across the west which Kelly Beaver, Chief Executive of Ipsos Mori explained to me in a superb interview for the seminar series on populism I co-convened at St Antony’s College, Oxford this spring. You can watch my interview with Kelly here, but the standout quote for me was;
“There has been a majority of people who believe the state is broken… which means they are more likely to believe that the state is not working in their favour. And when that’s the case, you have an optimal environment for populist sentiment to thrive.”
Hope Not Hate’s deep dive on Reform voters confirms this story; they found that 78.9% of Reform voters are pessimistic about the future, 84% think the political system is broken - and 92% feel "politicians don’t listen"
As Prof Green put it;
“The system isn’t working. That’s what Reform voters believe—and that’s not extreme, that’s rational frustration.”
Right now, these voters, especially the economically insecure in their 50’s and early 60’s - that crucial ‘danger zone’ when saving into a pension is so important - are shifting to Reform. That single truth should make us approach welfare reform incredibly carefully - and of course, it helps explain why ending winter fuel allowance was so very unpopular. One key quote stuck in my mind:
“If midlife, economically insecure voters swing right—or stay home—Labour’s majority is toast.”
Challenge 3: Reform May Become the Dominant Right-Block Party
“If Reform becomes the most viable party on the right, Labour now has a gigantic problem.”
In a country where we are divided into two basic blocks, and traffic between them is limited, there are big prizes for the party that can consolidate ‘their block’.
If Reform can consolidate the ‘right bloc’ then there is peril for Labour. At the last election Reform helped Labour in 96 constituencies by splitting the Tory vote. But Reform is now second or close third in 86 of those seats. So if the Conservative vote collapses, Reform could overtake Labour in key marginals, especially in low-turnout or economically stressed areas. One key quote brought this home for me:
“Reform is now within striking distance in 86 Labour-won seats. Labour’s vote doesn’t need to collapse—just splinter.”
And right now, it is splintering.
Challenge 4: Labour Support is Splintering in All Directions
This is why Labour cannot really afford to alienate voters in across the progressive ‘left block’. Right now, our vote is wandering off in all directions. As Prof Green put it “It’s not just Labour to Reform—it’s to Greens, Lib Dems, independents, and apathy. Economic insecurity is driving voter disengagement or defection, especially among midlife voters (40–59) with high outgoings, insecure debts, and low savings - while Greens are picking up younger, insecure, disillusioned voters who still oppose the right.
Challenge 5: Labour Failed to Recreate the 2024 Left-Liberal Coalition
This leads us to challenge number 5; “The 2024 coalition of Lib Dems, Greens and tactical voters that delivered Labour’s majority may not hold.” Labour’s current majority was built on:
Left-liberal coalescence
Right-conservative fragmentation
2024’s 35% vote share was unusually disproportionate, producing a much larger seat share due to quirks of first-past-the-post.
Without deliberate remobilisation, this coalition may not re-form, especially if Reform is seen as viable on the right.
So, what did Prof Green think might be the strategic implications for Labour?
Four key points stood out;
1. Prioritise Midlife, Economically Insecure Voters
“People aged 40–59 who feel economically pressured are Labour’s biggest risk—and biggest opportunity.”
They are the most likely to defect to Reform or abstain. Labour must speak directly to:
Housing cost pressures
Energy insecurity
Debt and lack of savings
A feeling of being ‘uncared for’ by the system
2. Labour’s Task is Easier if the Right Remains Divided
Labour’s task is obviously easier if the Tories’ vote share holds up in Labour-Reform contests.
We should be very clear about the risk to the country of a Farage-led right
3. Remobilise and Reunite the Left-Liberal Block
“The left only wins if it votes tactically—and turns out.”
Invest in targeted, local anti-splinter messaging.
Show clear, values-based leadership to re-earn votes drifting to Greens or Lib Dems.
4. Reinforce Labour’s Reputation for Competence
Reform voters are motivated by perceived chaos, corruption and incompetence in government.
Labour’s strength lies in clear, bold, competent leadership.
Voters don’t need grand ideology—they want decisions, delivery, direction.
So, there we have it. Some extremely wise views about how Labour’s political strategy needs to evolve for new times. In the next post, I’ll take a look at how the conclusions for eight different think tanks that reported studies that caught my eye during Whitsun.